England is most likely on this pitch.
56% of our simulations put England into this match. The bracket re-prices as real results land — check back after each matchday.
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56% confidenceTrace · Phoenix MCP
Match #92Round of 16Mexico
Who arrives in Mexico City?
The match is locked in, but the participants aren't. This slot reads Winner Match 79 versus Winner Match 80 — and Rootin4 has been simulating the rest of the tournament to translate that riddle into probabilities.
Sun, July 5 · 18:00 local (est.) · capacity 87,523
Who will play here
5,000 sims · 685 min agoEngland
55.7%Group L
England: 55.7 percent probability. Group LMexico
49.1%Group A
Mexico: 49.1 percent probability. Group ACroatia
17.1%Group L
Croatia: 17.1 percent probability. Group LSouth Korea
14.7%Group A
South Korea: 14.7 percent probability. Group A4 other teams22.3%The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams: 22.3 percent probability. The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams
22.3%The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams: 22.3 percent probability. The rest of the field — click to expandCzechia
8.1%Group A
Czechia: 8.1 percent probability. Group APanama
6.1%Group L
Panama: 6.1 percent probability. Group LIvory Coast
4.2%Group E
Ivory Coast: 4.2 percent probability. Group EEcuador
4.0%Group E
Ecuador: 4.0 percent probability. Group EMost likely matchups
Top 5 pairingsMost likely scorelines
Mexico – England1-012.1%
1-111.2%
2-010.0%
0-18.5%
2-18.3%
24% of simulations send this one to penalties