Ecuador is most likely on this pitch.
30% of our simulations put Ecuador into this match. The bracket re-prices as real results land — check back after each matchday.
Hold the seat.
30% confidenceTrace · Phoenix MCP
Match #91Round of 16United States
Who arrives in East Rutherford?
The match is locked in, but the participants aren't. This slot reads Winner Match 76 versus Winner Match 78 — and Rootin4 has been simulating the rest of the tournament to translate that riddle into probabilities.
Sun, July 5 · 18:00 local (est.) · capacity 82,500
Who will play here
5,000 sims · 684 min agoEcuador
30.1%Group E
Ecuador: 30.1 percent probability. Group EBrazil
29.3%Group C
Brazil: 29.3 percent probability. Group CScotland
26.9%Group C
Scotland: 26.9 percent probability. Group CIvory Coast
23.8%Group E
Ivory Coast: 23.8 percent probability. Group E4 other teams55.7%The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams: 55.7 percent probability. The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams
55.7%The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams: 55.7 percent probability. The rest of the field — click to expandFrance
14.9%Group I
France: 14.9 percent probability. Group INetherlands
14.6%Group F
Netherlands: 14.6 percent probability. Group FMorocco
14.1%Group C
Morocco: 14.1 percent probability. Group CNorway
12.2%Group I
Norway: 12.2 percent probability. Group IMost likely matchups
Top 5 pairingsMost likely scorelines
Brazil – Ecuador1-013.5%
2-012.9%
1-110.1%
3-08.0%
0-07.9%
22% of simulations send this one to penalties