Australia is most likely on this pitch.
39% of our simulations put Australia into this match. The bracket re-prices as real results land — check back after each matchday.
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39% confidenceTrace · Phoenix MCP
Match #88Round of 32United States
Who arrives in Arlington?
The match is locked in, but the participants aren't. This slot reads Runner-up Group D versus Runner-up Group G — and Rootin4 has been simulating the rest of the tournament to translate that riddle into probabilities.
Fri, July 3 · 18:00 local (est.) · capacity 80,000
Who will play here
5,000 sims · 687 min agoAustralia
38.8%Group D
Australia: 38.8 percent probability. Group DTürkiye
33.2%Group D
Türkiye: 33.2 percent probability. Group DIran
30.9%Group G
Iran: 30.9 percent probability. Group GEgypt
27.8%Group G
Egypt: 27.8 percent probability. Group G4 other teams69.4%The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams: 69.4 percent probability. The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams
69.4%The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams: 69.4 percent probability. The rest of the field — click to expandNew Zealand
22.0%Group G
New Zealand: 22.0 percent probability. Group GBelgium
19.4%Group G
Belgium: 19.4 percent probability. Group GUnited States
15.9%Group D
United States: 15.9 percent probability. Group DParaguay
12.2%Group D
Paraguay: 12.2 percent probability. Group DMost likely matchups
Top 5 pairingsMost likely scorelines
Australia – Iran1-014.3%
2-011.5%
1-110.6%
2-19.1%
0-07.8%
22% of simulations send this one to penalties