Ecuador is most likely on this pitch.
47% of our simulations put Ecuador into this match. The bracket re-prices as real results land — check back after each matchday.
Book the flight.
47% confidenceTrace · Phoenix MCP
Match #78Round of 32United States
Who arrives in Arlington?
The match is locked in, but the participants aren't. This slot reads Runner-up Group E versus Runner-up Group I — and Rootin4 has been simulating the rest of the tournament to translate that riddle into probabilities.
Tue, June 30 · 18:00 local (est.) · capacity 80,000
Who will play here
5,000 sims · 686 min agoEcuador
47.0%Group E
Ecuador: 47.0 percent probability. Group ENorway
38.0%Group I
Norway: 38.0 percent probability. Group IIvory Coast
37.9%Group E
Ivory Coast: 37.9 percent probability. Group EFrance
27.8%Group I
France: 27.8 percent probability. Group I4 other teams49.4%The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams: 49.4 percent probability. The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams
49.4%The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams: 49.4 percent probability. The rest of the field — click to expandSenegal
25.0%Group I
Senegal: 25.0 percent probability. Group IGermany
11.7%Group E
Germany: 11.7 percent probability. Group EIraq
9.3%Group I
Iraq: 9.3 percent probability. Group ICuraçao
3.4%Group E
Curaçao: 3.4 percent probability. Group EMost likely matchups
Top 5 pairingsMost likely scorelines
Ecuador – Norway1-012.5%
1-111.5%
2-011.0%
2-19.1%
0-07.8%
24% of simulations send this one to penalties