Germany is most likely on this pitch.
42% of our simulations put Germany into this match. The bracket re-prices as real results land — check back after each matchday.
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42% confidenceTrace · Phoenix MCP
Match #101Semi-finalUnited States
Who arrives in Arlington?
The match is locked in, but the participants aren't. This slot reads Winner Match 97 versus Winner Match 98 — and Rootin4 has been simulating the rest of the tournament to translate that riddle into probabilities.
Tue, July 14 · 18:00 local (est.) · capacity 80,000
Who will play here
5,000 sims · 687 min agoGermany
42.4%Group E
Germany: 42.4 percent probability. Group EPortugal
20.1%Group K
Portugal: 20.1 percent probability. Group KFrance
19.8%Group I
France: 19.8 percent probability. Group ISpain
19.1%Group H
Spain: 19.1 percent probability. Group H4 other teams38.2%The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams: 38.2 percent probability. The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams
38.2%The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams: 38.2 percent probability. The rest of the field — click to expandColombia
14.5%Group K
Colombia: 14.5 percent probability. Group KUruguay
8.4%Group H
Uruguay: 8.4 percent probability. Group HUnited States
7.9%Group D
United States: 7.9 percent probability. Group DBelgium
7.4%Group G
Belgium: 7.4 percent probability. Group GMost likely matchups
Top 5 pairingsMost likely scorelines
Germany – Portugal1-013.1%
2-011.4%
1-110.0%
2-19.8%
0-08.1%
22% of simulations send this one to penalties