Spain is most likely on this pitch.
86% of our simulations put Spain into this match. The bracket re-prices as real results land — check back after each matchday.
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86% confidenceTrace · Phoenix MCP
Match #101Semi-finalUnited States
Who arrives in Arlington?
The match is locked in, but the participants aren't. This slot reads Winner Match 97 versus Winner Match 98 — and Rootin4 has been simulating the rest of the tournament to translate that riddle into probabilities.
Tue, July 14 · 18:00 local (est.) · capacity 80,000
Who will play here
5,000 sims · 1123 min agoSpain
86.4%Group H
Spain: 86.4 percent probability. Group HGermany
45.9%Group E
Germany: 45.9 percent probability. Group EFrance
34.9%Group I
France: 34.9 percent probability. Group IMorocco
18.1%Group C
Morocco: 18.1 percent probability. Group C4 other teams14.7%The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams: 14.7 percent probability. The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams
14.7%The rest of the field — click to expand
4 other teams: 14.7 percent probability. The rest of the field — click to expandBelgium
7.9%Group G
Belgium: 7.9 percent probability. Group GUnited States
5.0%Group D
United States: 5.0 percent probability. Group DBosnia-Herzegovina
1.1%Group B
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1.1 percent probability. Group BAlgeria
0.7%Group J
Algeria: 0.7 percent probability. Group JMost likely matchups
Top 5 pairingsMost likely scorelines
Germany – Spain1-112.2%
1-012.1%
2-010.4%
2-19.2%
0-07.8%
25% of simulations send this one to penalties